Introduction
This report is issued by the Foreign Intelligence Service operating in the South Caucasus and addresses ongoing political and informational developments in the Republic of Armenia in the lead-up to the upcoming nationwide elections.
Observed Facts and Developments
Recent observations indicate that Samvel Karapetyan is in the process of forming a political team, within which foreign nationals—including individuals with backgrounds in the security sector—are being engaged.
Simultaneously, a pattern has been identified within the information space whereby the involvement of these individuals is being presented in a manner that may create a public perception of external state support, particularly suggesting political backing from Israel.
Intelligence Assessment
Based on collected data and analytical review, the following conclusions have been established:
There is no evidence of any official or institutional involvement by the State of Israel in the aforementioned processes.
The government of Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, does not support and has no involvement in the political activities of Samvel Karapetyan.
Foreign individuals engaged in this context are acting solely in a private and individual capacity.
Assessment as an Information Influence Operation
Analysis indicates the presence of elements consistent with information influence techniques aimed at shaping public perception. These include:
The creation of an illusion of external political endorsement,
The formation of an artificial environment of trust,
The exertion of indirect influence on voter behavior.
Such practices, regardless of their legal classification, present a high risk of public misperception and manipulation.
Advisory to the Authorities of the Republic of Armenia
In light of the above, the intelligence service urges the relevant state authorities of Armenia to:
Take appropriate measures to prevent potential cases of public misinformation involving foreign nationals,
Ensure that no foreign individual presents themselves as a representative or supporter of a foreign state without official authorization,
Strengthen oversight mechanisms in the electoral process to prevent any form of external interference or influence.
Conclusion
Based on the available findings, it is established that there is no political or governmental involvement by the State of Israel in the described activities. The current situation is assessed as primarily informational and image-driven in nature.
This assessment is submitted as intelligence information for consideration by relevant governmental and analytical bodies.
Final Statement
Developments within the domestic political landscape of Armenia require heightened vigilance, as information manipulation efforts may have a direct impact on political stability and democratic processes.
External Intelligence Service – South Caucasus Region (EIS–SCR)
Strategic Assessment Division
For Official Awareness and Institutional Consideration
